Sunday, December 03, 2006

Go Stelmach (Part 4)

This should be the last post on this blog on the subject of politics until the next election. I will get back to posting about movies and which coaches in professional sports need to be fired.

Earlier, I mentioned the importance of MLAs getting their constituents out to vote for the candidate they're supporting. You Can't Teach That will now evaluate all MLAs who stood behind a candidate. I will do this by finding out how many votes they were able to get for their candidate in their own ridings and what percent of the vote they were able to get.

Stelmach's Supporters:

Ed Stelmach: 4156 votes (89.5%)
Ray Danyluk: 2496 votes (82.6%)
Pearl Calahasen: 891 votes (70.9%)
Lloyd Snelgrove: 1231 votes (66.4%)
Iris Evans: 1493 votes (64.4%)
Ivan Strang: 481 votes (63.4%)
Hector Goudreau: 581 votes (59.2%)
Luke Ouellette: 1385 votes (58.1%)
Fred Lindsay: 909 votes (56.7%)
Doug Horner: 1056 votes (55.3%)
LeRoy Johnson: 985 votes (50.6%)
Dave Hancock: 1909 votes (47.0%)
Lyle Oberg: 1012 votes (46.7%)
Mel Knight: 570 votes (43.8%)
Mark Norris: 919 votes (41.9%)*
Guy Boutilier: 306 votes (36.6%)
George Groeneveld: 901 votes (34.3%)
Carol Haley: 373 votes (18.4%)

*For the purposes of this comparison, the riding used for Mark Norris was Edmonton - McClung.

I'm not really worried about our two amigos from Edmonton because Hancock's auto dialer called me twice. I'm pretty sure he did all he could. Another thing is that they were working against Stephen Mandel's Dinning endorsement.

Dinning's Supporters:

Shiraz Shariff: 1831 votes (86.8%)
Moe Amery: 1247 votes (77.2%)
Harvey Cenaiko: 953 votes (73.5%)
Yvonne Fritz: 840 votes (70.5%)
Len Webber: 897 votes (57.5%)
Wayne Cao: 374 votes (56.8%)
Ron Liepert: 1564 votes (56.7%)
Gary Mar: 696 votes (56.6%)
Ron Stevens: 981 votes (54.7%)
Dave Rodney: 993 votes (53.9%)
Heather Forsyth: 988 votes (53.6%)
Alana DeLong: 903 votes (52.5%)
Richard Magnus: 573 votes (50.3%)
Cindy Ady: 809 votes (50.0%)
Denis Herard: 631 votes (49.9%)
Thomas Lukaszuk: 901 votes (49.6%)
Neil Brown: 497 votes (48.5%)
Art Johnston: 673 votes (48.1%)
Greg Melchin: 950 votes (46.9%)
Janis Tarchuk: 653 votes (46.6%)
Gene Zwozdesky: 608 votes (44.5%)
George VanderBurg: 676 votes (41.5%)
Clint Dunford: 542 votes (39.5%)
Rob Renner: 486 votes (37.3%)
Gord Graydon: 505 votes (35.3%)
Frank Oberle: 336 votes (34.6%)
Mary Anne Jablonski: 392 votes (31.3%)
David Coutts: 643 votes (28.7%)
Richard Marz: 680 votes (26.8%)
Len Mitzel: 284 votes (26.8%)
George Rogers: 489 votes (23.9%)
Rob Lougheed: 536 votes (22.5%)
Ken Kowalski: 366 votes (21.2%)
Ty Lund: 239 votes (20.8%)
Ray Prins: 474 votes (19.9%)
Doug Griffiths: 229 votes (16.0%)
Barry McFarland: 382 votes (15.2%)
Mike Cardinal: 219 votes (13.5%)

Looks like Dinning's MLA endorsements couldn't get him past Morton in the rural constituencies.

Supportin' Morton:
Paul Hinman: 1302 votes (61.7%)
Ted Morton: 1367 (51.5%)
Hung Pham: 414 (40.6%)

It should be noted that Cardston - Taber - Warner was Morton's second biggest win...maybe MLA endorsements do matter.

Here are some more stats for you political junkies:

The Toast of Calgary: Jim Dinning won 19 Calgary constituencies and the advance poll by 50% or higher.

The Crust of Calgary: Ed Stelmach's best finish in Calgary was in Calgary - Varsity, with 21.2% of the vote.

The Most Improved Award: Stelmach went from 3.2% in Strathmore - Brooks to 47.6%.

The "We're All PC's Here" Award:
1. Fort Saskatchewan - Vegreville: 4642 ballots cast
2. Edmonton - Whitemud: 4058 ballots cast
3. Lac La Biche - St. Paul: 3022 ballots cast

Props to my home riding, St. Albert, which finished 10th.

The "Couldn't Possibly Care Less" Award:
1. Calgary - Fort - 659 ballots cast
2. West Yellowhead - 759 ballots cast
3. Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo - 836 ballots cast

Note: Edmonton Advance Poll had a lower turnout than Fort Mac - Wood Buffalo. It could be because the first advance poll was such a mess that most people didn't try to go to this one.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Go Stelmach (Part 3)

WE WIN!!!!!!!

Unofficial results:
Ed Stelmach: 51,764 (35.9%)
Jim Dinning: 51,282 (35.6%)
Ted Morton: 40,976 (28.5%)

Morton is eliminated, then:

Ed Stelmach: 77,577 (58.3%)
Jim Dinning: 55,509 (41.7%)

Wow, my prediction sure was wrong. I never would have thought Stelmach would be leading after the first count. I guess Morton really tapped out all his support in the first ballot. The attacks that Dinning levelled at Morton was a gamble that didn't pay off due to Stelmach's massive #2 turnout on Morton's ballots. Stelmach's MLAs really came through for him while Dinning's sat on their hands. Charisma be damned; I think that somebody so different from Ralph Klein in personality is just what this province needs right now.

Go Stelmach (Part 4) will have a more detailed break down of the results once they're available, but I'm sure Anonymotron's analysis will be way better than mine anyway.

Take that, Jim Dinning's raw ambition! EDDY! EDDY! EDDY!

Go Stelmach (Part 2)

A fairly uneventful week of campaigning. Like I thought, Dinning and Morton swung at each other and Stelmach stayed out of it, and Hancock and Norris endorsed Stelmach. What I didn't count on was Oberg's endorsement of Stelmach. Whether those three can get their supporters to the polls is a whole other story, and I think a good chunk of them might stay home this weekend. But I don't really know...Dave Hancock's auto dialer has called me twice urging me to vote for Stelmach. I think Morton's "capital of northern Alberta" thing was a minor slip of the tongue that the media is blowing out of proportion and I don't think it will hurt his chances. I think that the Dinnites' claim that only 40% of their people bothered to vote is bunk, given that the voter turnout was right around what I expected. But with his large volunteer base, he's probably sold the most memberships this week.

The key to winning is going to be the MLA's supporting each candidate getting their people to the polls. And since Morton has the fewest MLAs on his team, he loses.

Revised Prediction:

Morton: 39.5%
Dinning: 33.9%
Stelmach: 26.6%

Stelmach is eliminated, then:

Dinning: 51.6%
Morton: 48.4%