Go Stelmach (Part 2)

A fairly uneventful week of campaigning. Like I thought, Dinning and Morton swung at each other and Stelmach stayed out of it, and Hancock and Norris endorsed Stelmach. What I didn't count on was Oberg's endorsement of Stelmach. Whether those three can get their supporters to the polls is a whole other story, and I think a good chunk of them might stay home this weekend. But I don't really know...Dave Hancock's auto dialer has called me twice urging me to vote for Stelmach. I think Morton's "capital of northern Alberta" thing was a minor slip of the tongue that the media is blowing out of proportion and I don't think it will hurt his chances. I think that the Dinnites' claim that only 40% of their people bothered to vote is bunk, given that the voter turnout was right around what I expected. But with his large volunteer base, he's probably sold the most memberships this week.

The key to winning is going to be the MLA's supporting each candidate getting their people to the polls. And since Morton has the fewest MLAs on his team, he loses.

Revised Prediction:

Morton: 39.5%
Dinning: 33.9%
Stelmach: 26.6%

Stelmach is eliminated, then:

Dinning: 51.6%
Morton: 48.4%