Sunday, March 02, 2014

86th Academy Award Predictions

Been a whole year since I last blogged, eh? Well, here it comes again. To recap: here are my top 10 favourite movies from this year:

1. Nebraska
2. American Hustle
3. Philomena
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Planes
6. Her
7. Rush
8. Frozen
9. Monsters University
10. Dallas Buyers Club

And now, onto the picks. You know how it works…Will win = AMPAS's ballot. Should win = my ballot.

Best Picture
Should Win: Nebraska
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

As usual, we trim the fat by getting rid of anything not nominated for "Film Editing."  So we get rid of Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Her, and we choose one from what's left.  

Choosing Nebraska for its strong screenplay and performances by Dern and Squibb. It's a heartland road movie that speaks to the dreamer in all of us. Can it win? Not a chance. The smart money's on 12 Years A Slave which is the most significant and historically important of all the nominees. However, ye be strongly cautioned here…it's a tough sit for sure, and there are rumours going around that many "for your consideration" copies have gone un-viewed. That makes Gravity the dark horse. And wouldn't you know it? Producer's Guild voted them a tie, just to make this more difficult and piss me off!

Should Win: Alexander Payne
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

The Academy's bias toward 3D directors shows once again (as Ang Lee won last year) and Cuaron has BAFTA, DGA, and Globe power behind him, so lock this one up. As for me, my Alex Payne bias is showing, as I believe he should have won the damn thing for Sideways. Besides, I loved Nebraska and its short film feel. 

Should Win: Bruce Dern
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

The Globes make this category harder because of the drama/comedy split, which leaves us with DiCaprio and McConaughey. McConaughey also has BFCA and SAG weight but Chiwetel Ejiofor has the BAFTA on his side. Bruce Dern gets my vote as I thought he was hysterical in Nebraska and is the one who wants it most. But, I think the academy has backed off from giving it to the veterans...

Should Win: Judi Dench
Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Obviously, Cate Blanchett will win for her modernized spin on Blanche DuBois, and well-deserves it, so lock this one up too. Judi Dench has hardly won anything for Philomena and even lost the British Independent Film Award but I thought she really nailed it.

Writing, Original
Should Win: American Hustle
Will Win: Her

This category is a bit odd this year. Her has been sweeping the minor circuit awards and won the WGA and Globe, but American Hustle has the BAFTA and Satellite Awards. The writing branch of the Academy is a bit odd themselves, so Her will probably end up taking it home. Much as I'd like to see Spike Jonze win, I love a screenplay with a twist ending. But I had to get past all the (ugh) voiceover in American Hustle and almost chose Nebraska.

Writing, Adaptation
Should Win: Philomena
Will Win: 12 Years A Slave

Philomena had a BAFTA win, but 12 Years a Slave is the Best Picture front-runner. John Ridley would only be the second black writer to win.

Supporting Actor
Should Win: Jared Leto
Will Win: Jared Leto

Almost picked Michael Fassbender, simply because he is NOT campaigning for votes, and he was also damn good in that show. But, in the end it goes to Jared Leto in his comeback role.

Supporting Actress
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

And another very interesting race. The Globes and BAFTA (and I) think Lawrence should win. SAG and BFCA disagree. I don't know…how long was Lupita Nyong'o actually on screen? Plus, Jennifer Lawrence has just won and is probably the hottest celebrity around right now, so I think this one has some legs.

Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Frozen
Will Win: Frozen

Fun fact: Walt Disney Animation Studios has never won this award. Seriously. I'm not kidding! They invented the genre and have never won. I admit I didn't do well on this category this year, having seen only two of the nominated films, so I have no choice but to vote for Frozen also. Should be a write-in vote for Planes given my top 10 this year, but I only pull that crap when none of the nominated films deserve to win. Plus, I am pulling for WDA given their snub for Wreck-it Ralph last year. Still burned about that one, you guys.

The rest:

Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty
Visual Effects: Gravity
Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
Cinematography: Gravity
Film Editing: Gravity
Original Score: Gravity
Original Song: "Let it Go" from Frozen
Makeup & Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing
Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Animated Short Film: Get a Horse!
Live-Action Short Film: Aquel No Era Yo

1 comment:

Adam said...

And that ties a record. Dang. Should have gone with my gut on Helium!